We Love A Long Shot

As unpredictable as the NFL is on a weekly basis, Week 3 was as random, improbable, and shocking as we’ve ever seen. You heard from @thefatjack on our latest episode that six underdogs won outright and how rare that actually is in the NFL. If you’re the “average moron” like I am, you might have thought that you had the NFL all figured out after the first two weeks of the season. Here’s a quick recap of the most surprising results:
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• The Cleveland Browns won a real NFL football game
• The Buffalo Bills pulled off the biggest upset since 1995 by beating Minnesota, and beating them handily, as 17-point underdogs
• The Jaguars lost to a combination of Titans QBs Blaine Gabbert and an injured Marcus Mariota just one week after a resounding win over the Patriots
• The winless Lions, who seemed to have already turned on new coach Matt Patricia, dominated the Patriots on Sunday night
• The 3-0 Miami Dolphins have a two-game lead in the AFC East
• After three weeks, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Matt Breida are your respective NFL leaders in passing yards and rushing yards…just like everybody predicted

While The Fat Jack provided you with real gambling advice that is smart and based in reason, I’m here to suggest some long shots based on nothing in particular except my designation as, what Fat Jack likes to call, an average moron. 

Betting the NFL Long Shots

These six bets are far from sure things but having some skin in the game will make rooting for these potential outcomes far more fun. At the end of the day, isn’t it about the journey, and not the destination?

Cleveland Browns to win the AFC North: +600

Alllllllllll aboard the Baker Mayfield express!!!

The city of Cleveland partied like it’s 2016 on Thursday night after Baker Mayfield made his NFL debut and led a second half comeback against the Jets on national television. After getting their first win since the Obama administration, the Browns finally have some life and optimism.
Baker is a baller and has been a winner at every level of football. The Steelers are a circus, the Bengals collapse every December, and the Ravens are a picture of mediocrity. Place a 6/1 bet on the Browns to win the division, put your faith in Baker, and party hard with the good people of Cleveland after every single win. Bud Light for everyone!

San Francisco 49ers to win the Super Bowl: +8,000

While you’re drinking along to this Scouting Report, pour some out to pay respect to 49ers quarterback Jimmy G. Nothing worse than seeing a young, budding superstar tear his ACL and have to miss the rest of the season like Garopollo did last Sunday.
The 49ers had high hopes for 2018 success with coach Kyle Shanahan and Jimmy G having a full offseason to work with. From the outside looking in, it looks like the 49ers season is all but finished.
So why should you bet on them to win the Super Bowl? Well, they were heavily picked to make the playoffs because their team is solid and deep, and their division is weaker than ever. With Jimmy G missing the rest of the season, the 49ers Super Bowl odds dropped from 25/1 to 80/1.
CJ Beathard is coming in to start at QB and he might just shock the world. Last year’s NFC Championship game was a battle of backups with Nick Foles vs. Case Keenum. Who’s to say Beathard can’t be as good as those guys?
Most importantly, Shanahan is a great coach. As an offensive coordinator, he once made the Cleveland Browns look competent with Brian Hoyer as the starting quarterback. Pretty damn good. Betting on the 49ers long-shot success would be a fun way to get invested in Shanahan’s creative play calling.

Josh Gordon will Spark It Up in the Endzone: +400

We still don’t definitively know whether Gordon is a mature player who has moved on from all his issues. Here, you can bet for or against his maturity. If you like the 4/1 odds of Flash Gordon pulling off this celebration, try to parlay it with “Will Bill Belichick decapitate Josh Gordon on live television?” (6/1 odds).
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Clay Matthews Will Punch a Referee This Season: +10,000

Speaking of the possibility of seeing a murder during an NFL game, Packers Linebacker Clay Matthews might go postal on the zebras at some point. Clay was hit with a bullshit roughing the passer penalty for the third straight week. 
My sympathy for Matthews is low for two reasons:

• His hair is beautiful and I’m jealous of it.
• This could have been prevented if he read our breakdown on how to hit an NFL QB. #TheMoreYouKnow

Hedge this by also betting on Packers Head Coach Mike McCarthy to attack the refs, too. He was ready to throw hands on the sideline with the official who threw the flag. 

The NFL Will Change its New Rules to Protect Non-QBs: +0
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Think Clay Matthews has had it rough? He hasn’t suffered nearly as much from the roughing the passer rules as Dolphins defensive end William Hayes has. Hayes tore his ACL last Sunday while awkwardly shifting his body in an attempt to avoid being flagged for putting his weight on quarterback Derek Carr.

So, the NFL, always prioritizing player safety, will certainly change the rules to protect defensive players like they do to protect quarterbacks? Nope. Not a snowball's chance in Tom Brady's afterlife. Never waste a penny betting on the NFL to address this issue. Betting on a possible rule change here is such a long shot you may as well stick to the Powerball.

Taysom Hill to win NFL MVP: +8,000

Saints Swiss-Army knife Taysom Hill plays QB, wideout, tight end, special teams gunner, as well as punt and kick returner. He’s a dynamic stud who is athletic and skilled enough to be plugged into almost any position on the field. ​

While you can’t actually find a place to bet on him yet (Spoiler Alert: I made up the Clay Matthews odds also) you should place a long shot on Hill winning MVP if ever given the opportunity.

What could possibly be more valuable than a guy who can play FIVE different positions?? The Arizona Cardinals don’t even have five players who competently play one position. Taysom Hill is an absolute beast and rooting for him to fill up the stat sheet sounds like a blast.

Author

The Scout. You can follow the Scout on Twitter.