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We Love A Long Shot

9/25/2018

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As unpredictable as the NFL is on a weekly basis, Week 3 was as random, improbable, and shocking as we’ve ever seen. You heard from @thefatjack on our latest episode that six underdogs won outright and how rare that actually is in the NFL. If you’re the “average moron” like I am, you might have thought that you had the NFL all figured out after the first two weeks of the season. Here’s a quick recap of the most surprising results:
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  • The Cleveland Browns won a real NFL football game
  • The Buffalo Bills pulled off the biggest upset since 1995 by beating Minnesota, and beating them handily, as 17-point underdogs
  • The Jaguars lost to a combination of Titans QBs Blaine Gabbert and an injured Marcus Mariota just one week after a resounding win over the Patriots
  • The winless Lions, who seemed to have already turned on new coach Matt Patricia, dominated the Patriots on Sunday night
  • The 3-0 Miami Dolphins have a two-game lead in the AFC East
  • After three weeks, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Matt Breida are your respective NFL leaders in passing yards and rushing yards…just like everybody predicted

While The Fat Jack provided you with real gambling advice that is smart and based in reason, I’m here to suggest some long shots based on nothing in particular except my designation as, what Fat Jack likes to call, an average moron. 

Betting the NFL Long Shots

These six bets are far from sure things but having some skin in the game will make rooting for these potential outcomes far more fun. At the end of the day, isn’t it about the journey, and not the destination?

Cleveland Browns to win the AFC North: +600

Alllllllllll aboard the Baker Mayfield express!!!
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The city of Cleveland partied like it’s 2016 on Thursday night after Baker Mayfield made his NFL debut and led a second half comeback against the Jets on national television. After getting their first win since the Obama administration, the Browns finally have some life and optimism.
Baker is a baller and has been a winner at every level of football. The Steelers are a circus, the Bengals collapse every December, and the Ravens are a picture of mediocrity. Place a 6/1 bet on the Browns to win the division, put your faith in Baker, and party hard with the good people of Cleveland after every single win. Bud Light for everyone!

San Francisco 49ers to win the Super Bowl: +8,000

While you’re drinking along to this Scouting Report, pour some out to pay respect to 49ers quarterback Jimmy G. Nothing worse than seeing a young, budding superstar tear his ACL and have to miss the rest of the season like Garopollo did last Sunday.
The 49ers had high hopes for 2018 success with coach Kyle Shanahan and Jimmy G having a full offseason to work with. From the outside looking in, it looks like the 49ers season is all but finished.
So why should you bet on them to win the Super Bowl? Well, they were heavily picked to make the playoffs because their team is solid and deep, and their division is weaker than ever. With Jimmy G missing the rest of the season, the 49ers Super Bowl odds dropped from 25/1 to 80/1.
CJ Beathard is coming in to start at QB and he might just shock the world. Last year’s NFC Championship game was a battle of backups with Nick Foles vs. Case Keenum. Who’s to say Beathard can’t be as good as those guys?
Most importantly, Shanahan is a great coach. As an offensive coordinator, he once made the Cleveland Browns look competent with Brian Hoyer as the starting quarterback. Pretty damn good. Betting on the 49ers long-shot success would be a fun way to get invested in Shanahan’s creative play calling.

Josh Gordon will Spark It Up in the Endzone: +400

We still don’t definitively know whether Gordon is a mature player who has moved on from all his issues. Here, you can bet for or against his maturity.
If you like the 4/1 odds of Flash Gordon pulling off this celebration, try to parlay it with “Will Bill Belichick decapitate Josh Gordon on live television?” (6/1 odds).
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Clay Matthews Will Punch a Referee This Season: +10,000
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Speaking of the possibility of seeing a murder during an NFL game, Packers Linebacker Clay Matthews might go postal on the zebras at some point. Clay was hit with a bullshit roughing the passer penalty for the third straight week. 
My sympathy for Matthews is low for two reasons:
  • His hair is beautiful and I’m jealous of it.
  • This could have been prevented if he read our breakdown on how to hit an NFL QB. #TheMoreYouKnow
Hedge this by also betting on Packers Head Coach Mike McCarthy to attack the refs, too. He was ready to throw hands on the sideline with the official who threw the flag. 

The NFL Will Change its New Rules to Protect Non-QBs: +0
​

Think Clay Matthews has had it rough? He hasn’t suffered nearly as much from the roughing the passer rules as Dolphins defensive end William Hayes has. Hayes tore his ACL last Sunday while awkwardly shifting his body in an attempt to avoid being flagged for putting his weight on quarterback Derek Carr.
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So, the NFL, always prioritizing player safety, will certainly change the rules to protect defensive players like they do to protect quarterbacks? Nope. Not a snowball's chance in Tom Brady's afterlife. Never waste a penny betting on the NFL to address this issue. Betting on a possible rule change here is such a long shot you may as well stick to the Powerball.

Taysom Hill to win NFL MVP: +8,000

Saints Swiss-Army knife Taysom Hill plays QB, wideout, tight end, special teams gunner, as well as punt and kick returner. He’s a dynamic stud who is athletic and skilled enough to be plugged into almost any position on the field. ​

While you can’t actually find a place to bet on him yet (Spoiler Alert: I made up the Clay Matthews odds also) you should place a long shot on Hill winning MVP if ever given the opportunity.

What could possibly be more valuable than a guy who can play FIVE different positions?? The Arizona Cardinals don’t even have five players who competently play one position. Taysom Hill is an absolute beast and rooting for him to fill up the stat sheet sounds like a blast.

Author

The Scout. You can follow the Scout on Twitter. 

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How to Hit An NFL QB

9/18/2018

1 Comment

 
Welcome back to the Scouting Report, Team Blitzed! Week 2 of the NFL season is in the books and it was one of the most entertaining NFL Sundays in recent memory.

A quick recap:
  • Vontae Davis was so mad that Bills Mafia wasn’t allowed to jump through tables that he quit the organization at halftime
  • Tom Brady’s motivational strategy of yelling at his teammates from a far distance didn’t help him outperform Blake Bortles
  • Ryan FitzMagic threw for 400 yards AGAIN as the Bucs find themselves 2-0 and one win away from a full-blown quarterback controversy
  • Patrick Mahomes is either the greatest quarterback ever or the Chiefs will peak in September yet again.
  • Kickers, the car insurance equivalent of NFL positions, showed once again that they are irrelevant until you absolutely need them to save your ass.

Week 2 was the week of the wild finishes, as you already know from listening to the latest and greatest episode of Blitzed NFL Radio. The wildest finish of the them all goes to the most exciting ending in sports: the tie.

The Packers and Vikings made it two straight weeks of NFL games ending in participation trophies as the league is being slowly overrun by millennials. After Kirk Cousins threw what should have been a game ending interception late in the 4th quarter, a yellow flag changed the course of the entire game. Clay Matthews was called for roughing the passer after he…gently brought Cousins to the ground.
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Every human with a functioning brain agreed that the call was horrible. The NFL, however, decided the catch rule isn’t pissing us off enough and we need to be dumbfounded by roughing the passer calls as well. Here’s how the NFL doubled down after the game:
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Yep… That incredibly perplexing call at the end of the game, that nobody understood, will now literally become the blueprint for roughing the passer penalties in the NFL.

Fear not, Blitzed Fam. The Scout is here to un-muddy the waters and teach you how to rush the quarterback in 2018.

How to hit a modern day
​NFL QB

Step 1: If you have an elite, generational pass rusher, DON’T FUCKING TRADE HIM!
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Step 2: Figure out how much your target is worth.

Von Miller, celebrity chicken farmer and erstwhile NFL defensive end from Denver, said that you can no longer hit quarterbacks low after Brady tore his ACL, and you can no longer hit quarterbacks high after Rodgers broke his collarbone. The NFL is protecting the stud QBs in an effort to keep the face of each franchise healthy.

Rodger Goodell is making it clear: don’t hurt the good ones. While Kirk Cousins isn’t necessarily “good” like Rodgers, that fully guaranteed deal makes him untouchable, as we saw on Sunday.

​We've obtained a technical breakdown from the NFL Officials Office of where quarterbacks are allowed to be hit:
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$500K-$999K — this is the “who the eff is that?” range where the NFL doesn’t care if you decapitate the signal caller. Go ahead and kill this guy,. He's probably a third stringer and his team is already dead.

$1M-$5M — we don’t want to roll out the body bags for these QBs but Goodell won’t lose any sleep if you cripple anyone in this range. Nobody tunes in to see Jacoby Brissett on Sunday.

$5M-$20M — we’re starting to get serious now. Here is the Case Keenum, Ryan Tannehill, and Andy Dalton range. Don’t hurt these guys and ruin their teams’ playoff chances. After all, this is all these fans have to hang their fleeting hopes on. Tackle them clean in the mid-section. Let them ruin their own playoff chances with their mediocre play.

$20M+ — The so-called 'elite QB' zone, which includes anyone from Russell Wilson and Big Ben to Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. These guys lead their teams to Super Bowls and are the handful of players that even the casual fan knows about. A perfect hit is required here.  And boy, it better be perfect.

The Brady Zone — Before today thought to be just a myth, but very much a real policy. Unless you can scrape a fingernail on the ball without making any contact whatsoever with Tom Brady or making him feel bad, don't even bother trying. Anything more than that is an automatic 15-Yard penalty. 

The Cam Newton Zone 
-- Pretty much the inverse of the Brady Zone.

Step 3: Don’t Rush the Passer

Better safe than sorry. Drop 11 guys back in coverage and double-team every single receiver, running back, and tight end. Make the offensive line completely useless. Most importantly, it will confuse the hell out of everybody on offense and maybe something good will happen.

Do you have any good suggestions for rushing the passer in today’s NFL? Tweet them to @BlitzedNFL and @Blitzed_Scout!

Author

The Scout. You can follow the Scout on Twitter. 

1 Comment

Overreaction Week

9/12/2018

2 Comments

 
Welcome to the first installment of the Scouting Report. The Coach, The Rookie, and Stats Guy were naïve enough to trust me with producing some written content for the best NFL fans on the internet: #TeamBlitzed.

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I’m Scout. Preferably The Scout, or else it sounds like I’m just the Blitzed NFL golden retriever. Regardless, I’m so happy to contribute to my favorite podcast that I don’t care if you call me Air Bud. I highly encourage you to drink along with my writing like you do with the podcast!

This week on Blitzed NFL Radio the Blitzed Crew gave you their biggest overreactions from the NFL’s first regular season games:
  • ​Ryan Did-You-Know-He-Went-To-Harvard? Fitzpatrick will win the MVP.
  • DeShaun Watson is a bum.
  • Titans, Saints, and Bears fans should just give up hope, quit the 2018 season, and find a new sport entirely after their respective teams lost one-score games.
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The one number overreaction the way The Scout sees it? It goes to The Coach for his demolition of the Buffalo Bills. 

​Exhale, Bills Mafia, you don’t need to sharpen up those razor blades just yet. Your current head coach is the only coach to get you to the playoffs in the 21st century. Your future quarterback is a 22-year-old with a rocket arm just waiting to develop. Buffalo, you’ve just waited decades to make the playoffs. The only way Joe Flacco could ruin the momentum of your franchise is if you trade for him. Keep flying through tables and being some of the best drinkers in the NFL!

The Scout's Overreaction

Now, whose fans should be sharpening the blades? Ironically for The Coach, it’s the Seattle Seahawks. 

Maybe it’s the first sign of the curse of him drafting Tom Brady in the Blitzed Fantasy Draft. Maybe it’s losing every single good player on defense and not replacing any of them. Maybe it’s having your first-round pick be 16 pounds overweight.

Whatever it is, the Seahawks are totally FUCKED.

They're fucked not only because they'll miss the playoffs for a second straight year. The Seahawks have simply peaked and there is nothing they can do about it. Nobody has replaced Chancellor, Sherman, Bennett, Avril, and Richardson. Maxwell and Baldwin will also be out for a long time. 

The roster is depleted. It showed on Sunday when the Broncos offensive and defensive lines manhandled them. Sure, Seattle only lost by three points. But the old Legion of Boom would never win by only single digits, let alone lose, when snagging three interceptions. The new Seahawks let Russell Wilson take six sacks every week instead of being just good enough to let him roll out of the pocket. 

My Denver Broncos are obviously a Super Bowl contender, if not the favorite. While that is simply an undisputable fact that I’m happy to address later, let’s first wrap up the overreaction part of the program. 

As a Broncos fan, I’ve seen this situation before. Mike Shanahan won two rings as the Broncos head coach and burned his place into Denver history like he burned his skin every summer. Then, after Hall of Famers like Elway, Terrell Davis, and Shannon Sharpe left, things got different. The Broncos slowly went from NFL royalty in the late ‘90s to NFL purgatory by the mid ‘00s. Shanahan’s teams were bad enough to miss the playoffs, but not bad enough to get top-ten draft picks and accumulate young talent.

Much like Shanahan, Pete Carroll will slowly devolve into NFL purgatory after losing all of his best players. It won’t be quick and easy. The Seahawks won’t be the Browns or the Bills. Slowly and surely, Seahawks fans will realize that 8-8 seasons are as common in Seattle as skinny guys with patchy beards dressed like lumberjacks.

​Sorry, Coach, it looks like you can’t ship those razors out to Buffalo quite yet. Unfortunately for you and the good folks of the Emerald City, you aren’t allowed to sharpen 'em up either. The mass exodus of talent from this Seahawks roster has landed Pete Carroll in Mike Shanahan purgatory. The blades that kill your spirit will be dull, and the process will be long and painful. Think cardboard paper cut.
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Week Two Overreaction Predictions

If you’ve been drinking along so far, I recommend you take a quick shot here and join me in doing what drunk NFL fans do remarkably well: accurately predicting the future.

Here are the best upcoming overreaction predictions from Week Two of the NFL season…

Overreaction #1: An AFC South Playoff Contender Will be Eliminated

The Texans (0-1) play at the Titans (0-1) in a battle of two fan bases who constantly yell at nobody about how underrated their quarterback is. Despite each team being heavily picked to make the playoffs, the loser will start the season 0-2. NFL teams who lose their first two games of the year miss the playoffs 87% of the time according to a statistic I just made up (take that, Stats Guy!) Between Sacksonville’s elite D and Andrew Luck’s resurgence from the dead, being 0-2 in the AFC South is a death wish.

Overreaction #2: Mitchell Trubisky Can’t Handle Big Moments

Who the hell scheduled the Bears to play in back-to-back primetime games to start the season!? Chris from TitleTown Soundoff (@TTSO_Chris) explained that wild Sunday Night Football game on the podcast more intelligently and coherently than I ever could here. Just seven days later, poor Mitch has to jump right back into the limelight. The Seahawks will pressure Mitch and get one of their eight wins on the season as the football world unleashes its favorite hot take of all: Mitchell Trubisky…dramatic pause…lacks the clutch gene.

Overreaction #3: The AFC East Finally Has a Second Team

​We hate Tom Brady for so many reasons here at Blitzed. I’m constantly looking for the Bills, Dolphins, or Jets to compete with the Pats and break their streak of consecutive division titles. This year, the underdog we all root for will be the 2-0 winner of the Dolphins (1-0) at Jets (1-0) game. Whoever wins this game will be the most surprising 2-0 team in the entire NFL. Honestly, both of these teams are probably trash. But for a brief moment this upcoming Sunday afternoon, we will have an AFC East Cinderella—the ugliest Disney princess ever.
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Author

The Scout. You can follow the Scout of Twitter.  

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